Two Pair Is Fool's Gold

OK, taking off my Stupid/System hat for a moment to focus on a bit of actual poker strategy. This probably isn't an issue for you, but for me it is half revelation, and half reminder. Here it is:

If a card makes your hand stronger, it still hasn't improved unless it is likely to be ahead of the range of your opponent(s).

I played FTOPS #8 yesterday, freerolling thanks to Michael Craig. I went out in ten hands. It's not exactly the highlight of my poker career. I went out with Aces and Queens on a cooridinated board. At the time I debated whether I had made a mistake calling the all in on the turn, but now I know better. I goofed on the turn, but it wasn't by calling while I was pot committed.

Let me back up. The hand I played right before my busto hand I had Aces, and I really love the way I played it. The result stunk, but the play was great, and, more to the point, it illustrates how I misplayed the next hand.

Here's the setup.

I have AA in middle position, I raise 2.5 to feed the pot but hopefully get a caller. I get one caller. Pot's about 130, the flop is TTx. I bet about 100, and he calls. The turn is a nine.

So what can I put him on?

We may be tied, but that's unlikely enough to just dismiss. It comes down to this: Either he's way ahead (he has a Ten, 99, or 33), or he's way behind (he has a pair lower than AA, maybe even two overcards). If he's way ahead, I want the pot small. If he's way behind, I want him to think he's ahead. A check accomplishes both of those objectives. He will bet out with the best hand or maybe even the worst hand. If he bets out, I'll call, but at least if I am beat I'm not calling a much larger re raise. With the check, I control the pot size.

My opponent checks behind me. At this point I figure I'm ahead. River is a Jack, which means there's a possible straight out there and also JJ just got there. I'm not too wary, but I am a little wary. However, I figure I'm probably still ahead. I value-bet 150 into a 330 pot, and he min. raises me to 300. Now I am suspicious that I'm beat especially with that min. raise. It looks like he's just begging for a push, but I just have 150 more to call to win 630, so it's an easy call.

I call, he has JJ and basically caught a miracle river. What statistically is usually a win is now a loss, but I have effectively controlled pot size. I don't think I get the guy off of Jacks there, even if I'm betting. I'm pretty surprised that we didn't have fireworks preflop, at which point I'd have either made him fold or I'd have lost to a horrible river beat, but he just called with his Jacks.

OK, next hand AQd, and I raise it 4x, because with AQ in early position I'm happy enough if everybody folds even though my hand's likely best at a 6 seat table. However, I get two calls and the pot is 360. Flop is KQ2 with two spades and no diamonds. I bet 200 to make chasing the flush a bad idea and to see if there is a King out there. Both opponents call, and I'm pretty much done with the hand, but the turn is an Ace.

The pot is 1060. I have Aces up. What should I do?

Here's what I did. I bet 700 into that pot, leaving me 900 chips left. That was a big mistake. My mistake was in thinking my hand had improved. It had in theory, but had it really? I had started with Queens on a King high board. Two calls of a reasonable bet on that flop. I was beat.

Now I have top pair and third pair. Does that mean I just got better? What's calling 4x preflop and then a bet on the flop, that I could have just moved ahead of?

Here's the list: KQ, KJ, KT from a real loose player.

The other likely hands are JT suited (not a long shot for 4x preflop in my opinion), AK, KK, QQ and AA, maybe 22. All of those had me crushed on the flop and still have me crushed, excpet for JT, which I was ahead of on the flop but which is now the nuts.

So, again. Improving your hand is only improving if you're likely to have pulled ahead. And I think two pair is the hand that traps the most people into this. Two pair's awesome, but nothing is more easily counterfeited, and it's only one bump up the ladder from a pair. Most strong hands beat it and a boat is a long shot.

I needed to take a lesson from myself, one hand before, where I had a much stronger hand but still managed to remember to control the pot size. I believe should have check to get information and then faced either a tough call or a tough laydown.

So, I bet 700, making me pot committed or close to it. Cally McCallerston called, of course, and then madmax, certainly delighted that I'd done his work for him, raised all in. With nearly 6000 in the pot and only 900 chips left I decided I couldn't find a fold, but I felt pretty sick about it. Of course Cally McPotSweetener folded with 400 chips left, so I suppose he thought he was playng Razz, or Monopoly perhaps.

Sometimes improving isn't improving a bit. Words to live by.