OK, so Hoyazo asked for a recap of a hand I alluded to last post, in which eventual MATH winner Fuel berated me for a play which, though marginal, I think was justified. Hoy asks, I deliver. Who am I to deny one of my three or so readers?
I do want to state from the outset that I don't consider this a great play by any reach of the imagination. And, though I did think the play is acceptable, I expect that some comments (if there are any) will not be complimentary. But I did have my reasons. Let's see if I can explain what those are.
First, the hand, without comment:
*********** # 108 **************
$20+$2 Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (100/200)
Seat 1: Julius_Goat (3519 in chips)
Seat 5: Astin (2590 in chips)
Seat 6: Fuel55 (10820 in chips)
Seat 7: NewinNov (5571 in chips)
Fuel55: posts small blind 100
NewinNov: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Julius_Goat [9c Qc]
Julius_Goat: raises 400 to 600
Fuel55: calls 500
*** FLOP *** [2c Jd 6c]
Fuel55: bets 4200
Julius_Goat: calls 2919 and is all-in
*** TURN *** [2c Jd 6c] [4c]
*** RIVER *** [2c Jd 6c 4c] [7c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Fuel55: shows [8s 8c] (a flush, Eight high)
Julius_Goat: shows [9c Qc] (a flush, Queen high)
Fuel55 said, "fawk"
Julius_Goat collected 7238 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 7238 Rake 0
Board [2c Jd 6c 4c 7c]
Seat 1: Julius_Goat showed [9c Qc] and won (7238) with a flush, Queen high
Seat 5: Astin (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: Fuel55 (small blind) showed [8s 8c] and lost with a flush, Eight high
Seat 7: NewinNov (big blind) folded before Flop
NewinNov said, "arghhh"
Fuel55 said, "you putzes and your draws"
Astin: raises 400 to 600
NewinNov said, "this game will last forever"
Astin collected 500 from pot
Astin: doesn't show hand
Fuel55 said, "you do realize that drawing is bad poker"
Astin said, "but it's good pictionary" <---- Line of the night.
Julius_Goat said, "if it weren't for bad play, I wouldn't be able to play fuel"
OK, the first thing we'll notice is that I'm pretty frisky in EP pre-flop. Queen-Ten sooted? Rags. I'm not going to deny it. However . . .
(1) A steal from EP even with fugly one-gapper can be a very successful move when you're trying to steal the blinds (which, obviously, I was).
(2) The better your opponents are (and all these guys are solid to scary from what I've seen), the more obvious the steal is the closer you get to the button.
(3) We're four-handed. I have to loosen it up.
(4) We're at the bubble. Time to loosen and steal.
(5) If I hit this flop hard, it's going to be harder to put me on this hand.
Fuel calls me. I am not happy about this. He's the big stack, he has me way covered, and he's very aggressive. Because of these factors, he could have any number of hands.
However, I'm not upset about this, for the very same reasons. A good flop could get me paid, because Fuel isn't a check-folder. He's more of a 'open your belly and see if you have guts' kind of guy.
As it turns out, he's got a pretty decent calling hand, pocket eights.
2 clubs, Jack diamonds, 6 clubs.
OK, now I have a nice flush draw. I pretty much like this flop, because if Fuel checks, I'm going to take control of the. . .
Oh. Never mind. Fuel just put me all-in.
So, I'm in the tank, which online means I think for 45 seconds.
Here's what I come up with:
1) Calling all your chips with only a flush draw is typically a donkey move.
2) I'm behind. Obviously.
3) I don't think I'm too far behind. Fuel has just given me a 'you go away now' bet.
- Possibility 1: Fuel has a monster, and is over-betting for value. I've seen him do it to Hoy already tonight, so it's totally possible. Sixes or deuces fit the bill, Queens through Aces are a possibility. He's raising me pre-flop with Jacks.
Verdict: Rejected. Fuel is going to milk me for the inevitable continuation bet if he's flopped a big hand or smooth-called with a big pair. I put this at low probability, let's say 10%.
Goat's Note: All percentages are horribly arbitrary and made up after the fact. I didn't do ALL this work in 45 seconds.
- Possibility 2: Fuel has a Jack. What kind of Jack hand does Fuel just call with? AJ, maybe, KJ or QJ more likely. If this is the case, it's the 3 remaining queens and 9 remaining clubs as outs. 12 outs twice makes it about a coin flip. I'm behind by a hair.
Verdict: Fairly Possible. This explains the bet pretty well. But I think that with just top pair, Fuel makes a bet to define a hand. Fuel mocks those who think TP is gold, Jerry, gold!
Let's put this at 30%.
- Possibility 3: Fuel is bluffing or semi-bluffing at the pot. The semi-bluff scares me the most, because that could mean a better flush draw.
Verdict: Rejected. I respect Fuel's game, and don't see him committing half of his chips on a pure bluff. And I'm simply not going to factor in a higher flush draw. If that's what it is, so be it. Hopefully I have 2 live cards.
Let's put this at 10%.
- Possibility 4: Fuel has a pocket pair lower than Jacks. I'd say 77 through TT.
Verdict: Ding ding ding ding ding ding! This explains the confidence of the bet (he's got me on high cards), AND his reason for not wanting me to draw any more and just end the hand there. It's a good play for him to make, and he's still got plenty if I just caught my Jack.
In other words, this is the hand that fits the play. And it's a good play (remember, my read is based on the fact that I think Fuel is a good player).
Unfortunately or fortunately for Fuel (depending on if I catch up) . . . if my read is correct, and unless it is TT (the least likely combo, as I've got one of those), I have 15 outs twice. Which means, I am behind, but I'm favored.
10% possibility that I am behind to a big pair or a flopped set. I have 9 outs.
10% possibility that I am WAY behind to a high flush draw, esp. AJ clubs. I have 3-6 outs and have to dodge the very clubs I hope to catch.
30% possibility that Fuel has a Jack with no flush draw. I have 12 outs twice, and am basically in a coin-flip.
50% possibility that Fuel has an underpair. I'm favored.
And there's one other thing.
Fuel has an enormous stack compared to the rest of us. Unless I chip up significantly, he is going to money-whip us like sad little puppies until the water is eight feet high and rising. Forget that action. I want to win. My read says call.
So, I call. He shows eights. One is a club. Curses!
Now, I realize that I got lucky, or 'lucky', or whatever. I think Fuel played the hand just right. And I think this was a marginal call. But, as I said, I had my reasons for making that call.
And now you know.
Edited to Add: OK, anybody paying attention will notice that throughout this writing I forgot what hand I had and thought I had been holding QT, not Q9.
Easily explained. I was tired when I wrote it. Also, I'm a big donkey.